Most in Asean prefer China over US as partner in poll, Trump cited as biggest concern

US President Donald Trump greets Chinese President Xi Jinping before a bilateral meeting at the Gimhae International Airport terminal in South Korea in October.

Photo: Daniel Torok/White House/dpa Most Southeast Asians would choose China as a strategic partner over the US if forced to pick, as analysts attribute the findings of an annual survey to recent geopolitical and trade uncertainties driven by Washington’s policies.

But analysts warn against interpreting the respondents’ sentiment in the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey as a zero-sum game between the superpowers, saying that Asean is looking to diversify partners in a multipolar world.

When asked which superpower the region should pick if it is forced to align itself with either the US and China, 52 per cent of all respondents chose Beijing, while the remaining 48 per cent picked Washington.

Last year, 52.3 per cent of respondents preferred the US, with the remaining 47.7 per cent choosing China.

Support for China was stronger in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while the US remained the preferred choice in the Philippines, Myanmar and Vietnam.

ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute interviewed 2,008 respondents across 11 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including those in the private sector, research institutions and policymakers.

The survey was conducted from January 5 to February 20, with its start happening a few days after US President Donald Trump authorised the capture of Venezuela’s former leader, Nicolas Maduro, and announced that Washington would indefinitely control the sale of the South American nation’s oil.

Ousted president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, and his wife, Cilia Flores, arrive at the Wall Street Heliport in New York on January 5 after a US raid in Caracas.

Photo: TNS On Tuesday, analysts speaking at an online panel on the latest survey findings said the swing could be attributed to China’s closer economic ties with the region and recent moves by Trump.

Ng Chee Khern, the institute’s director, said that as the margin in the swing towards China remained narrow, it should not be read as a “wholesale strategic pivot” to Beijing.

Scot Marciel, a former US diplomat and senior adviser at BowerGroupAsia, said: “I’m actually surprised the numbers didn’t swing more given the tariffs and other things the Trump administration has done.” But Marciel cautioned against viewing it as a zero-sum game. “To the extent that the US takes actions that kind of pu

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