Orban on the brink: could Hungary’s election dent China’s influence in Europe?

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz is trailing the rival Tisza Party in the polls ahead of the April 12 election.

Photo: Reuters Major powers are closely watching Hungary’s election next week – a vote seen as a referendum on Europe’s right and crucial for Chinese interests in the EU.

Recent polls show self-styled “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban’s Fidesz trailing challenger Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party by between 19 and 23 points among likely voters ahead of an election on Sunday that has been described as “Europe’s most consequential”.

For China, Russia and the United States under President Donald Trump, an Orban defeat would remove a partner that has repeatedly blocked EU efforts to act against them and opposed parts of the bloc’s social and green agenda.

For Brussels, meanwhile, a Magyar victory would raise hopes that Budapest may move closer to the EU centre, ousting a member state that has repeatedly blocked efforts to sanction Russia and China over political and human rights disputes.

US President Donald Trump with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House in November.

Orban has become a poster boy for the Maga movement.

Photo: AFP In a show of solidarity with Orban, US Vice-President J.D.

Vance is expected to visit Hungary this week – a demonstration of the ideological alliance Orban has struck up with the Maga movement, for which the five-term prime minister has become a poster boy. “Hungary is a small but proud country – people say our elections are the most consequential in Europe and I agree,” said Tamas Matura, an associate professor specialising in China at Corvinus University of Budapest.

Beyond the immediate contest, the election could reshape China’s position in Europe.

Orban has long served as Beijing’s closest ally inside the EU, shielding it from criticism and attracting billions in investment.

His removal would strip China of that political foothold, even if its economic footprint in Hungary likely proves more durable. “The Russians could be about to lose their closest friends in Europe.

For the Chinese, a change in government means it may lose some kind of political support even if its economic positions would probably be ensured,” Matura said.

China has not, however, featured prominently in the campaign.

Instead, as polling day nears, close links between Orban’s circle and the Kremlin have made international headlines.

Leaked phone calls between Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Russian coun

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