How lessons from Iran war could shape mainland China’s calculus on Taiwan

Illustration: Henry Wong Whether it wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran will echo for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics, energy security and global perceptions of American tactical and strategic power.

In the first of a three-part series, Mark Magnier looks at how the Iran war may alter Beijing’s approach to potential conflict over Taiwan, asymmetrical weaponry and the United States as an adversary.

The US military is formidable, well-disciplined, projects deadly force rapidly and is tactically impressive.

However, its drone warfare has struggled – even as concerns over inflation and casualties reduce support for a protracted war potentially benefiting an authoritarian system not subject to electoral pressure.

These are among the lessons the People’s Liberation Army is likely to draw as it studies the Pentagon’s tactics and strategy in the Iran war, with an eye to any eventual Washington-Beijing conflict over Taiwan, according to analysts and former Pentagon and CIA officials. “The Chinese military is going to go to school on this,” said Dennis Wilder, a former US Central Intelligence Agency and National Security Council official. “For the Chinese, the question is, will this work and is this workable for us.” “And we’re not at the conclusion of that story,” added Wilder, a senior fellow at Georgetown University.

Parts of the conflict are not directly translatable.

US President Donald Trump apparently did not consult US allies other than Israel, whereas any Taiwan conflict is likely to involve Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia and potentially Europe.

But the war is a valuable opportunity to study US strengths and weaknesses, particularly given that the PLA has not “tasted blood” since its 1979 war with Vietnam.

The US and Israeli air campaign quickly hit over 13,000 targets, knocking out Iran’s air defences and exhibiting prowess in airborne refuelling.

Despite Trump’s threat to bomb Iran “back to the stone ages”, however, the US has apparently ignored a truism of military aviation. “If you have a determined adversary, that has national resilience, that can absorb the blows, air power alone may not be sufficient to achieve victory,” said David Finkelstein, a distinguished fellow with independent research institute CNA. “That’s an important lesson for everybody.

It certainly is as they think about Taiwan.” This is also an opportunity to assess the performance of new or newly deployed US wea

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