Strait of Hormuz: are France and Germany just out to ‘manage their irrelevance’?

Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, last month.

Iran has effectively closed the waterway through which about 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply is transported.

Photo: Reuters France and Germany have ramped up diplomatic efforts to contain the fallout from an escalating Middle East oil crisis, seeking to project European autonomy and distance themselves from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

But as the conflict entered its second month, analysts said this was more about damage control than a leadership bid.

They said while Berlin and Paris were at the forefront of calls for de-escalation they had limited room for manoeuvre given their security dependence on Washington.

Joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have killed dozens of senior Iranian officials, including former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first wave.

In retaliation, Iran’s missile strikes targeting Gulf countries aligned with the US have had a significant impact on the global energy chain, and it has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply travels.

Oil prices have surged, threatening European economies, as the strait’s daily transits dropped to a small fraction of its baseline of 130 vessels.

Paris and Berlin have condemned Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes and the closure of the strait and refused to join the American military campaign.

French President Emmanuel Macron has consistently dismissed a military reopening of the waterway as “unrealistic”, instead advocating for a UN-backed diplomatic moratorium to restore freedom of navigation.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s approach is defined by pragmatic restraint, shielding the country’s industrial core from an unmanageable energy shock.

The two powers have also launched multilateral crisis management, including pushing for the International Energy Agency’s record-breaking release of emergency oil stocks.

Meanwhile, representatives from over 40 countries, excluding the US, met virtually on Thursday to begin forming a coalition to secure the Gulf shipping channel, with the UK and its allies agreeing to explore sanctions to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

But observers said that without the military or economic tools to enforce an outcome, their influence may be more aspirational than operational. “[Their] autonomy is more about damage control rather than a quest for leadership,” said Ding Yifan, a

原文链接: 南华早报