East Asia’s crisis of confidence in the US is militarising China’s backyard

Illustration: Craig Stephens The dust and debris of the US-Israeli war on Iran have yet to settle, but its strategic shock waves have reached East Asia.

From Tokyo to Taipei, a reassessment is under way.

The conflict, intended to project American resolve, has been a brutal stress test for the US-led order – with catastrophic results for Washington’s credibility.

Far from cementing its primacy, America’s misadventure has revealed a superpower that is overstretched, vulnerable and seen as an unreliable partner.

This erosion of strength does not simplify Asia’s landscape; it incubates a more volatile environment that may paradoxically worsen China’s external security.

The immediate lesson is one of brutal inequity.

While China absorbs the economic tremors with its strategic depth and diversified energy arteries, America’s treaty allies in the region, Japan and South Korea, bear the brunt of the economic fallout.

Meanwhile, its security guarantee now resembles a dangerous liability.

Iran’s ability to strike US bases has made abstract threats concrete.

If a sanctioned regional power can penetrate US defences, what would confrontation with China, a major missile power, mean for Tokyo or Seoul?

Hosting US forces could turn into an invitation for obliteration.

This crisis of confidence arrives as regional military trajectories are at an inflection point.

In the face of a rising China and a nuclear-armed North Korea, US-aligned powers are not idle.

Japan is shedding its post-war constraints, developing long-range anti-ship missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles that can strike over 1,000km away, clearly with Taiwan and the Chinese mainland in mind.

With an emboldened North Korea and a distracted United States, Seoul’s need for self-reliance is urgent.

It has fielded the “monster missile” Hyunmoo-5, a “bunker buster” with a 3,000km range, signalling an independent deterrent.

Taiwan, though more limited, pours resources into anti-ship missiles designed to break a potential blockade.

The US struggle to conclude the war further fuels these programmes.

The war laid bare critical US weaknesses: depleted munitions stocks, an anaemic industrial base and the need to divert resources from the Pacific.

The myth of invincibility is shattered.

Consequently, the logic for Tokyo, Seoul and Taipei shifts from supporting a US-led coalition to preparing to go it alone – or holding the line until a distracted and depleted America can arrive.

The now leaky US secu

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