How Trump’s plan to take Iran’s Kharg Island could come unhinged

US Navy sailors load onto an MV-22B Osprey during an exercise aboard the forward-deployed amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli on March 26.

The Tripoli arrived in the Middle East last week.

Photo: Handout Donald Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island – a key Iranian oil hub – could be a risky proposition, analysts say, given its strategic location in the Persian Gulf.

The small coral island lying about 33km (21 miles) offshore handles around 90 per cent of Iran’s crude shipments.

It also sits close to missile and drone ranges stationed on the Iranian mainland and about 660km (410 miles) from the now heavily fortified Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump administration has been considering deploying troops to seize the small island as a way to pressure Iran into reopening the strait, a critical energy conduit that has been effectively shut in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28.

In a highly anticipated speech late on Wednesday (US time), President Trump said that the “core strategic objectives” of Operation Epic Fury were “nearing completion”.

But he also warned about further strikes that could inflict heavy damage, heightening fears of a US seizure of Kharg Island amid mounting American troop build-up in the region.

Trump has made several pointed threats about seizing the island since start of the US-Israeli military campaign.

In an interview with the Financial Times published on Sunday, where Trump said that he wanted to “take the oil in Iran” by seizing Kharg. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t.

We have a lot of options,” he said. “It would also mean we had to be there [on Kharg Island] for a while.” The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli arrived in the Middle East last week, signalling heightened US readiness for potential ship-to-shore operations.

As a “lightning carrier”, essentially a light aircraft carrier, the Tripoli is a compact platform for F-35B stealth fighters, MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotors, and landing craft to deploy troops ashore.

But analysts cautioned that a ground invasion of Kharg Island carried high risks, due to its strategic position near the Iranian mainland, enabling rapid missile and drone responses.

A Beijing-based Chinese military analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to media, said occupying Kharg Island directly would prove difficult.

This was because the entire amphibious assault fleet would need to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, making

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