The US-China trade war 1 year on: who really holds the upper hand?

Illustration: Victor Sanjinez As China and the United States wrapped up their sixth and most recent round of trade talks in Paris this March, a minor mishap briefly stole the spotlight.

A sudden gust of wind toppled two American flags in the background, where journalists were waiting for US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Officials rushed to tape them to the wall – a fitting tableau for a trade war that, one year on, is patched together by a truce yet remains far from resolved.

At their respective press appearances, Bessent described the talks as “very good” and Chinese vice commerce minister Li Chenggang called them “constructive” – standard diplomatic language that did little to mask the lack of any substantive breakthrough.

The path to Paris began in April 2025 when, in his “Liberation Day” address, US President Donald Trump brandished a giant tariff board and announced sweeping levies on much of the world, plunging the global trading system into chaos.

While most of America’s major trading partners – including the EU, Japan, South Korea and Mexico – rushed to meet Trump and negotiate a deal, Beijing instead chose to fight back.

Within weeks, tit-for-tat retaliation had pushed tariffs to near-embargo levels.

Washington’s new tariffs imposed on Chinese goods rose to 145 per cent, while Beijing’s counter-duties on American exports hit 125 per cent, on top of additional taxes on the likes of soybeans and liquefied natural gas.

Both sides eventually stepped back from the brink, striking a truce in Geneva in May that removed most of the tariffs.

The ceasefire was later extended in August and again in November, when Washington also halved its fentanyl-related tariffs on China.

Trump’s summit with President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, last October added another layer of stability.

Beijing pledged to resume US soybean purchases and to delay new restrictions on rare earth exports.

The landscape shifted again in February when the US Supreme Court struck down most of the White House’s tariffs.

China now enjoys a tariff rate far lower than what Washington imposed at the start of the trade war.

At the same time, the US-Israeli war on Iran forced Trump to postpone a planned visit to Beijing, adding uncertainty to negotiations.

For now, analysts said relations were likely to remain carefully managed.

Trump is eager to secure tangible gains before the midterm elections, while Beijing aims to delay direct confrontation for as long as possible.

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原文链接: 南华早报