What will the US do next in its war on Iran? Chinese pundits point to a likely path

US Navy sailors move a F/A-18 fighter aircraft fuel tank on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln during Operation Epic Fury late last month.

Photo: US Navy/dpa The US is likely to “escalate to de-escalate” its conflict with Iran, planning more aggressive strikes in the coming weeks to force a resolution, even as a complete ceasefire seems unlikely, according to Chinese analysts.

In a prime-time address on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump declared that the US‑Israel war against Iran had delivered “decisive, overwhelming victories”, with Washington’s core military objectives nearly completed.

Without giving details, Trump also threatened to send Tehran “back to the Stone Ages” over the next two to three weeks.

In response, Tehran vowed on Thursday to continue the war until Washington and Jerusalem faced “permanent regret and surrender”, threatening “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks.

Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaqari said the United States and Israel had “incomplete” information about Iran’s military abilities and equipment, saying the country’s military production “takes place in locations that you are completely unaware of and will never be able to reach”.

Now in its second month with no truce in sight, the war in the Middle East continues to destabilise global markets and strain transatlantic alliances while taking a toll on Trump’s domestic approval ratings.

A Beijing-based military analyst, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to comment on the matter, said Trump’s speech officially ushered in the “second half” of the war, as goals of the first phase – decapitating Iran’s leadership and destroying most of its navy and air defence systems and ability to launch missiles – had been largely achieved. “The US will have to escalate to de-escalate.

It can choose to invade Kharg Island, which might require a major force deployment, or choose to sweep the hidden underground bunkers along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz and create a safe zone with marines,” he said, referring to an island in the Persian Gulf that is Iran’s main oil export hub.

Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, agreed, saying Washington would likely carry out “limited ground operations” over the next few weeks. “If [the US ground forces] do nothing after being deployed, Trump has no ‘win’ to point to.

He needs substantive military achievement

原文链接: 南华早报