1 month, 2 straits, more strikes: how long will the US-Israeli war on Iran last?

Houthis brandish their weapons as they rally in solidarity with Iran and Lebanon, amid the US-Israeli war with Iran, in the Yemeni capital Sanaa on Friday.

Photo: AFP As the US-Israeli war on Iran enters its second month, another major shipping lane is at risk of closure but the chances of a prolonged conflict remain slim, according to Chinese analysts.

The assessment came on Saturday as Iran-backed Houthi rebels joined the fray by firing missiles at Israel from Yemen.

The Israeli military said it intercepted one of the projectiles.

Chinese state news agency Xinhua quoted a Houthi source as saying the missile attack was meant “as a warning”.

The Houthis operate in the northern part of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key part of the shortest sea route for Eurasian commodity and energy trade.

The rebels have previously attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea and analysts said that obstruction of this route could lead to another rise in oil prices, which have already soared above US$100 a barrel.

Jodie Wen, a scholar from the Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS) at Tsinghua University, said that blocking the strait would have dire consequences for the world economy. “If they [the Houthis] officially join the war, it would immediately expand the fighting from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.

This would create a dual blockade of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb, triggering a massive chain reaction for the US, the region, and the global economy,” Wen said.

Military commentator and retired Chinese colonel Yue Gang said the Houthis did have the capacity to block the Bab el-Mandeb. “They have done so multiple times before.

The United States once organised a joint escort fleet to break through the blockade, but the results were ultimately unsuccessful,” Yue said. “The US would hardly have the extra power to deal with such a blockade, which would create even more pressure.

The US can’t even break through the Strait of Hormuz now, let alone deal with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.” However, if the Houthis did blockade the Bab el-Mandeb, it would be a short-lived process as a bargaining chip to end the war because the more important game was in the Persian Gulf, he said.

Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, agreed that any Houthi action in the Bab el-Mandeb was unlikely to last long because the rebels had been weakened in the past two years by US and Israeli strikes.

Instead, Zhan

原文链接: 南华早报