Trump’s Iran gamble falters as war drags on amid concerns of long-term chaos

First responders work to remove a body from the rubble of a residential building hit in an overnight US-Israeli strike in Tehran on Friday.

Photo: AP A month after the US and Israel launched the war with Iran, nothing seems to be going according to President Donald Trump’s plan for a conflict lasting four to six weeks.

Despite the assassinations of most of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leaders, the regime shows no signs of collapse.

Similarly, wave after wave of US and Israeli air strikes may have degraded Iran’s ballistic missile and drone capabilities, but they still look set to remain a potent threat to the region for the duration of the conflict – and beyond.

In stark contrast to the Trump administration’s demands for capitulation, diplomatic proposals exchanged via Pakistan’s government in recent days have seen Iran harden its position.

Washington wants Tehran to dismantle its nuclear enrichment facilities and surrender its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium estimated to be sufficient for 11 warheads.

Oil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, the United Arab Emirates, on March 11.

Photo: AP US conditions for ending the war also include scrapping all Iranian missiles except those for defensive purposes, and ending Tehran’s support for allied “Axis of Resistance” militias including Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

In response, Iran has demanded acceptance of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of US forces from bases in the Gulf Arab states, and the parallel cessation of attacks against its regional proxies.

According to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Middle East fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, officials in Iran “feel they have the initiative simply because the regime is largely intact”.

Tehran remained capable of launching ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf monarchies, and maintaining its de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and “stranglehold over the world economy”. “There is a feeling held by many in Iran that their tolerance for pain is higher than Trump’s, and this will begin to make itself felt the longer the war goes on,” he said.

As such, analysts see Trump’s setting and extension of deadlines for Iran’s surrender – from last Monday to April 6 – as performative politics designed to keep his options open, as it does for Tehran.

US President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting in the Wh

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