How long will US-Israel war on Iran last? Chinese analysts offer clues

2026.03.19 22:20 Smoke and flames rise at the site of air strikes on an oil depot in Tehran, capital of Iran, on March 7. Photo: TNS Iran’s missile and drone stockpiles will last another two or three months as US-Israeli strikes continue, while the US military is also depleting its interceptors, Chinese analysts have noted. However, how long the war lasts would depend less on stockpiles alone than on the effectiveness of new US deployments and President Donald Trump’s political calculus, one of them cautioned. Iran has continued its attacks on Israel and on US assets across the Middle East since the conflict was triggered on February 28 by US-Israeli strikes targeting its top leadership. But the pace of Iranian missile and drone launches appears to have eased since the early days. Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said Iran’s ballistic missile stockpile was likely to be down to its final 30 per cent, with probably fewer than 1,000 units left in its arsenal, as indicated by open-source intelligence. But Iran had significant drone advantages, he noted. “By contrast, Iran’s drones are easier to produce and deploy, suggesting a relatively ample stockpile. In the short term, drone supplies are unlikely to face significant constraints,” Hu said. Israeli military estimates said that Iran held around 2,500 ballistic missiles at the war’s outset. While its total drone inventory remains unclear, the Pentagon reported on March 5 that Iran had already fired over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones in the present conflict. Media reports indicate that Iran has deployed thousands of drones across the Middle East, sometimes to deadly effect. Six US service members were killed when an Iranian drone struck an operations centre at a civilian port in Kuwait. These drones have also created a stark cost imbalance in the conflict. Iran’s low-cost Shahed-136 drones, costing roughly US$20,000 to US$50,000 each, are being countered with US int

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